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DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
Portales, and the region surrounding Portales, is expected to experience
steady growth over the next several decades. Many indicators point
towards a bright future for Portales and the community stands ready
for new challenges and new growth.
The Portales workforce is increasing and becoming more educated,
income levels are increasing, poverty is decreasing, and the agricultural
industry (specifically dairy) is booming. Portales wishes to take
the positive step of planning for this growth now in order to ensure
a quality environment for future generations. Understanding past
trends and future projections will aid in this task.
To understand the significance of the changes occurring in Portales,
a regional approach and view is necessary. Curry County and the
City of Clovis to the north, Cannon Air Force Base, as well as the
whole of Roosevelt County are all included in a new statistical
area designated as the Clovis-Portales Combined Micropolitan Statistical
Area. The Clovis-Portales Micropolitan Combined Statistical Area
is a new statistical designation given by the United States Office
of Management and Budget. This new designation was established in
2003 and is made up of the Clovis Micropolitan Area and Portales
Micropolitan Area, comprised of Curry and Roosevelt Counties respectively).
More information on Micropolitan Statistical Areas can be found
at the following web site: http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metrodef.html
. Using this combined statistical area helps to understand significant
trends in the region and the designation itself illustrates the
interconnections of the region.
1. Population Trends and Projections
All indicators point toward population growth for Portales over
the next three decades. Based on the 2000 US Census, 62% of Roosevelt
County’s population resides in Portales. Between 1980 and
2000, population increased slowly but steadily in Portales from
9,940 to 11,131.
Historic Population Trend in Portales, 1910 to 2000
Source: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
County population projections from the University of New Mexico,
BBER, point toward steady population growth through 2030. Population
in the County is expected to increase to 23,773 by 2030. It can
be anticipated that much of the growth that occurs in the County
will take place within the City of Portales.
Population Projections for Roosevelt County
Source: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
It is also important to look at population trends for the Clovis-Portales
Micropolitan Area in order to fully understand how population growth
is expected to impact the region over the next several decades.
Many businesses looking to locate in a community require a minimum
population threshold (typically 50,000) to consider moving into
an area. Neither Clovis nor Portales meet this threshold individually,
but with the Micropolitan Area designation, the total population
was over 50,000 in the 2000 Census.
The total population for the Micropolitan Area in 2000 was 63,062,
easily exceeding the 50,000-person threshold. By 2030, population
for the Micropolitan Area is projected to reach 71,941. It is important
for Portales to attract new job opportunities and residents as it
takes advantage of this new statistical designation.
Clovis-Portales Micropolitan Area Population Trends
Source: University of New Mexico, Bureau of Business and Economic
Research
The population projections for the Clovis-Portales Micropolitan
Area are highly dependent on a number of external and internal factors
and could fluctuate significantly, depending on how these factors
play out over time. Some of the issues affecting growth in Portales
over the next several years include:
• The Micropolitan Area’s ability to build synergy and
momentum as a result of the Glambia Cheese Factory and other projects
in the area;
• The City’s/region’s ability to diversify its
economy and add or retain jobs;
• Changes in the number of programs and/or deployment at Cannon
Air
Force Base;
• Increase or decrease in enrollment, staffing, and programs
at ENMU;
• The amount of homes available for purchase or rent in the
Micropolitan
Area;
• The area’s ability to retain ENMU graduates and retired
personnel from
Cannon Air Force Base;
• The area’s ability to retain young families (which
will lead to an increase in fertility rates); and
• The area’s ability to market itself to new residents,
and enhance its quality of life amenities.
2. Age of Population
Understanding age structure helps to plan for housing, social services,
and other services that may be needed for different age groups in
the population
(e.g. senior housing and medical services, youth recreation opportunities).
This data can also aid in understanding the need for job opportunities
and how citizens derive their income (e.g. change in working age
population, income from retirement and social security).
Portales has a young population and a growing “working age”
population. According to the 2000 US Census, the median age in Portales
was 27.3 years old.
This is much younger than the median age for the State, which was
34.6 years old. The location of ENMU’s main campus in Portales
has a direct impact on this younger median age. The segment of the
population that is growing most in Portales falls between the ranges
of 35 to 59 years old and can be considered the main “working
age” population. This segment of the population is likely
to be part of the labor force and seeking home ownership opportunities.
Portales offers many amenities, such as quality schools and a high
quality of life that is increasingly attracting new residents in
search of a good place to raise a family.
3. Educational Attainment
Trends related to the educational level of a community provide an
insight into the skill and ability of the labor force. Educational
attainment in Portales has increased for both the secondary and
post secondary levels according to data from the 1990 and 2000 US
Census. The 2000 US Census indicates that 74% of Portales residents
aged 25 and older are high school graduates, an increase from 61.7%
in 1990. Those with a bachelor’s degree or higher increased
from 21.1% in 1990 to 25.2% in 2000. Additionally, the proportion
of the population with graduate or professional degrees increased
from 10.2% to 11.2% of the population. Communities that demonstrate
an educated and trainable workforce (those with a high number of
high school and college graduates) are much more likely to attract
businesses in need of skilled labor.
1990 2000
People Percent People Percent
Population 25 years and over 5,748 100.0% 5,995 100.0%
Less than 9th grade 1,070 18.6% 717 12.0%
9th to 12th grade, no diploma 1,129 19.6% 839 14.0%
High school graduate 982 17.1% 1,269 21.2%
Some college, no degree 1,127 19.6% 1,270 21.2%
Associate degree 227 3.9% 392 6.5%
Bachelor’s degree 628 10.9% 838 14.0%
Graduate or professional degree 585 10.2% 670 11.2%
Percent high school graduate or higher 61.7% 74.0%
Percent bachelor’s degree or higher 21.1% 25.2%
Source: US Census Bureau
4. Income
Analysis of income and poverty statistics for Portales shows that
income levels are increasing in Portales and poverty levels have
decreased significantly. Median household income increased by 15.8%
between 1990 and 2000. Median family income increased at an even
greater rate of 19.4%. In 2000, Median Household Income in Portales
was $24,658 and Median Family Income was $30,462. Per capita income
also increased between 1990 and 2000 by 17.2% and was $12,935 as
of the year 2000. As can be expected, as income rises the poverty
level will decline. In Portales, the number of persons in poverty
decreased by over 23% between 1990 and 2000.
Income and Poverty Statistics for Portales, 1990 and 2000
1990-2000 Rate of Change
Median Household Income $21,294 $24,658 15.8%
Median Family Income $25,506 $30,462 19.4%
Per Capita Income $11,034 $12,935 17.2%
Persons below Poverty Level 3,311 2,523 -23.8%
Source: US Census Bureau
5. Agriculture
One of the reasons that Portales and Roosevelt County expect sustained
growth for the foreseeable future is the strength and growth of
agricultural industries in the region. As mentioned previously,
the dairy industry, and specifically cheese production, will play
a significant role in the City’s future.
The total amount of farmland in the County increased by 3.9% between
1997 and 2002, even as the number of farms decreased from 913 to
804. This indicates that agriculture is growing and individual farms
are becoming larger in size on average. The most telling data that
points toward growth in agriculture is the amount of farm sales,
and specifically sales from milk and other dairy products. Between
1997 and 2002, total farm sales increased in the County from $146,699,000
to $190,084,000, representing a 30% increase. The proportion of
farm sales attributed to milk and other dairy products increased
dramatically over this time, increasing from $68,639,000 in 1997
to $123,107,000 in 2002 for a 79% increase.
Farm Statistics for Roosevelt County, 1997 and 2002
1997 2002 Rate of Change
Number of Farms 913 804 -11.9%
Land in Farms
(acres) 1,443,850 1,500,821 3.9%
Total Farm Sales
($1,000)
$ 146,699
(Adjusted to
2002 Dollars)
$190, 084 29.6%
Sales from Milk and Other
Dairy Products ($1,000)
$ 68,639
(Adjusted to
2002 Dollars)
$123,107 79.4%
Source: US Census of Agriculture
This demographic analysis is meant provide a basic understanding
of how the community is changing and projected to grow over the
life of this planning document. Additional demographic analysis
is provided in Section 4: Economic
Development and Section 5: Housing. Understanding of the community
is important in planning for the future of Portales. As demographic
data is updated through new Census’ reports, these trends
should be reanalyzed and the Comprehensive Plan should be updated
as necessary. Past trends indicate that the Portales economy is
growing, income is increasing, and agriculture is booming. Trends
in the age structure of the population and projected population
growth indicate that many young families may move into Portales
in the coming years. This Plan is a positive step towards directing
this growth in a positive way for the citizens of Portales.
